The European Gas Forum (EGaF) has conducted a new report which focuses on power generation sector developments to 2030. It shows that Europe’s current energy and climate policies risk higher CO2 emissions, an undue rise in customer bills, and increased risks to supply security.
Today’s report from EGaF with support from Pöyry confirms the increasing risk that a “Coal + Renewables” power generation pathway may become an entrenched, long-lasting phenomenon. Investment delays in new power generation capacity due to policy uncertainty, carbon pricing and subsidies in renewables may lead to a situation where Europe has no alternative. This could prolong a situation in which Europe fails to meet its decarbonisation ambitions, whilst by 2030 consumer bills are still set to rise by almost 50% in real terms. At the same time, security of electricity supply could be more difficult to guarantee due to the lack of flexible gas-fired power generation to support intermittent renewables.
The continuation of the current market and policy environment would reinforce coal use. In the near term, the adverse CO2 impact would be masked by meeting the renewable targets. But by 2030, it would be a massive challenge to reverse the trend and reach the EU’s long-term decarbonisation goals – despite potential subsidy support for renewables well over €500bn by 2030.
Risk to power sector decarbonisation and competitiveness (pdf)